환율의 변동성과 불균형이 수출성과에 미치는 영향 : 동아시아 8개국을 중심으로

The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment on Export Performance : Evidence from Eight East Asian Countries

Purpose - This study is analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility and misalignment on export performance using panel data composed of eight countries in East Asia from 2006 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach - The basic methodology in the study used the expor volume equation. In the analysis process, we considered the exchange rate volatility and misalignment variables. And we controlled the (t-1) value of import volume considering the characteristic of the East Asian countries that are doing intermediary trade. Also, the exchange rate misalignment was divided in to ‘systematic misalignment’ and ‘temporary misalignment’. Findings - As a result, the exchange rate volatility of East Asian countries did not have statistically significant effect on export performance. However, ‘systematic misalignment’ had a negative impact on export performance. Research implications or Originality - This means that the decrease in the exchange rate ‘systematic misalignment’ in East Asian countries can contribute to the improvement of actual export performance. And East Asian countries should try to bring the exchange rate to market equilibrium in the mid-long term.