중국의 외국인 직접투자와 수출 상품 구조변화

FDI and Export Commodity Structure Change: Evidence from China

Purpose - In this study, we empirically investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on China’s export commodity structure change, using time series data covering the period from 1983 to 2016. Design/methodology/approach - In the estimation, Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality Test was used to determine the causality direction between the variables. As stable and unstable variables are mixed, then the ARDL bounds test approach was employed to examine the existence of cointegration and the relationship of long run and short long between foreign direct investment and the structure change of export commodities. Specifically, we estimate the structure change of China’s export commodities by measuring the aggregated fluctuations of each item’s relative value to the previous year, following the Lawrence index. The effects of trade openness and real exchange rate were also considered in the models. Findings - We find that FDI and real effective exchange rate contribute to the commodities’ structure change in China’s exports in the long run, whereas there is no significant evidence in the short run, regardless of model specifications. Research implications or Originality - This study complements the limitation of the fact that most existing studies focus on analyzing the quantitative relationship between foreign direct investment and exports, while there are few studies on qualitative change in exports. In addition, the results of this study provide insight into the effects of trade friction between China and US on economic growth in China.