가계의 주택자금 수요행태분석

An Empirical Analysis on the Consumer Behavior for Housing Lending

The purposes of this paper are to empirically analyze consumer behavior for the housing lending and to suggest the improvement of the housing finance policy measures. We employ a two-stage procedure to estimate housing demand. In the first stage, a probit-model estimated the probability of choosing a long-term lending or short-term lending. Predicted values from probit-model are used to estimate housing demand. The results indicate that the housing demand for households choosing short-term lending is influenced by asset, not user-cost in contrast with households choosing long-term lending. We simulate demand under eight different restrictions of LTV and PTI. The simulations indicate that the condition which controls maximum LTV and PTI by 40% and 25%, respectively decrease housing demand by approximately 4.4%. We expect that the results of this paper will be useful in making housing finance policy measures like qualification conventions for LTV and PTI.