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학술대회자료

주택시장에서의 사용자비용과 임차비용간의 장기적 관계

Evaluating the Long-Term Relationship between the User Cost and the Rental Cost in the Housing Market

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After we calculated the home owner’s user cost(Ct) and renter’s rental cost(Rt) of the same house in the housing market,we analyzed the long-term relationship between Ct and Rt. In addition, we also analyzed the long-term relationship between the variation of the value ( Rt-Ct) and housing price(Ht). To do this, after building reasonable formulas to calculate the values of Ct and Rt varied by time t, we analyzed the values of Ct and Rt by region. In the end, we presented the future forecasted values of Ct , Rt , and Ht. Related to the long-term relationship between Ct and Rt , it is expected that the demand for home buying would increase when the situation of Ct < Rt lasted. On the contrary, the demand for home buying would decrease when the situation of Ct > Rt lasted. Meanwhile, the potential home buyer could prefer renting to buying the same home when the growth rate of house price is lower than average growth rate. This period is expected to be highly related to the period when the situation of Ct > Rt lasted, and in our analysis, we could confirm this close relationship. It is expected that the analyzed results of the long-term relationship among Ct, Rt , and Ht as well as the forecasting method we used in our analysis could be used as a meaningful indicator to estimate the future direction of housing market environment by region in advance.

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 분석모형 및 자료

Ⅲ. 분석결과

Ⅳ. 결론

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