MCI모형을 활용한 연령대별 인구이동 분석

Analysis of migration by age bracket using MCI model

저성장기조와 더불어 저출산 및 인구 노령화라는 인구구조가 변화함에 따라 제한된 주택수요의 증가를 불러왔다. 이에 향후 미래의 주택시장은 지금의 시장과는 완전히 다른 양상을 보일 수도 있다. 이러한 인구구조변화에 우리가 적절하게 대응하려면, 각 연령별 주거지를 선택할 때 어떠한 것들을 비중 있게 고려하는지 알고, 그에 따라 앞으로 대응하는 것이 중요할 것이다. 본 연구에서는 MCI모형을 통하여 어떠한 지역에서 요인들이 인구이동에 어느 정도의 영향력이 있는지를 연령대별로 알아보고자 한다. MCI모형은 다수의 경쟁관계에 있는 목적지에 대한 선택요인을 분석할 때 유용하게 활용되는데 연구의 결과를 간략하게 설명하면 각각의 변수들은 영향력이 연령대별로 다르게 나타남으로 이를 통해 연령대별 선호하는 주거이동의 우선순위도 알 수 있었으며, 20대와 30대에 지하철변수의 영향력이 가장 크게 나타난 것으로 보아 대중교통의 의존도가 높은 것으로 판단되며 이동 거리에 대한 영향력은 이미 사회에 정착해있는 고연령일수록 음의 영향을 나타냈다.

The changes in population structure of korea due to aging society and low fertility is recently issue of korea. Therefore, the patterns of future population movements are likely to be different from the existing population movements. Because of this importance, the necessity of population movements analysis for age group was emphasized, but the empirical analysis on this was relatively insufficient. so, In this study, we analyze the factors affecting population movements by age group, and analyze the differences in influence on population movements among the elderly and other age groups, and to suggest implications for future housing market. Population movement has the essence that moving entity choose where provide the highest utility among the various residential candidates. Therefore, in this study, the MCI model was used to analyze these characteristics, and the differences in the size of the residential candidates were corrected then analyzed. Analysis result of general park, market and department stores, which are expected to have a great influence on residential movements, it is found that the areas adjacent to general hospitals are not preferred at all age groups , While those in their 20s and 30s showed preference to market and department stores, but not to other age groups. In general hospitals, unlike private clinics and public health centers, the percentage of patients visiting long distances is high. Based on the this and the results of above, it is possible that the general hospitals are cover very wide area. In case of market and department stores, 20s and 30s are relatively close market because of their relatively high dependence on public transportation such as subways. On the other hand, other age groups seem to relative less priority the neighboring areas because of purchasing using the car, living environment and crowdedness of the area where the market and department stores are located.