The Risk of Local Extinction in South Gyeongsang Province

With the effect of population decline in rural areas and concentration of population into large cities, the risks of local extinction have a great deal of discussion in Japan. The ‘local extinction’ discourse has also attracted public attention in Korea. The purpose of this study is to examine the current situation of local extinction in South Gyeongsang Province using local extinction index and to show prospects for local extinction risk using population projection by city and county in South Gyeongsang Province. As of 2015, seven cities except Milyang have shown that their extinction risk indices are all above 0.5 and beyond. On the other hand, the extinction risk index of county areas except Haman-gun came to a low level, indicating that they are already in a state of extinction. This situation is expected to change significantly by 2035. The city s extinction risk, which was low in 2015, is expected to increase significantly to 2035, putting all 18 cities and counties in South Gyeongsang Province at risk of extinction. The rapid increase in the number of elderly people can be seen as a major factor in increasing the risk of extinction.