오차수정 모형을 통한 세계 크루즈 관광객수의 탄력성 추정 연구

An Estimation of Elasticity of Number of World Cruise Tourists through Vector Error Correction Model

Along with the development of marine tourism, the number of world cruise tourists is rapidly increasing; competition among regions to attract cruise tourists is intensifying. Cruise industry is known as an industry in which the demand for cruise tourism sequentially increases when cruise ships capable of providing high-quality services are provided. The purpose of this study is to analyze the major factors affecting the number of cruise tourists in the world and we use the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the long-term balance function that determines the number of cruise tourists. This study finds that the number of cruise tourists finally converge to long-term balance if the number of cruise tourists at present is different from the one at long-term equilibrium affected by various variables such as cruise fleet, cruise order volume, EU GDP and ASIA GDP. There are some prior studies analyzing the cruise industry focusing on cruise tourists, but it is hard to find studies carrying out a dynamic analysis of the cruise industry. This study is meaningful in that it explains the dynamic characteristics of the cruise market using the vector error correction model.