한국 성인의 혈중 알코올 제거율 및 관련 인자에 대한 Spaghetti Plot을 이용한 재분석 및 예측 모델

Re-Analyses and Predictive Models on Blood Alcohol Elimination Rate and Associated Factors in Korean Adults

Objectives ： Alcohol-related pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters and related factors in Korean male and female were reported respectively in our previous works, but they lacked methodological validity. We recalculated more reliable parameters including the volume of distribution (Vd) and blood alcohol elimination rate (β-value) and examined the potential of predictive models using new analytic techniques. Methods ： Out of 101 men and 91 women, 66 men and 65 women were selected for the final data analysis. New PK parameters were obtained from redrawn blood alcohol concentration (BAC)-time spaghetti plots for every subject. Regression analyses were used to determine β-values and predictive models for Vd and β-value. Results ： For men, β-value was 0.147±0.045 g/L/hr and ranged between 0.050-0.240 g/L/hr, for women it was 0.155±0.047 g/L/hr and ranged between 0.060-0.270 g/L/hr, demonstrating a significant difference after adjustment for age, past drinking behavior, and smoking. Influence of alcohol dose on β-value was not significant. Vd was significantly predicted by height, weight and sex multifactorially (R2=0.562, p＜0.001), and body fat ratio monofactorially (R2=0.812, p＜0.001). β-value was significantly predicted by sex, weight, total body water, and past drinking behavior (R2=0.706, p＜0.001). Conclusion : Using new analytic methods, we updated alcohol related PK parameters and investigated the influence of related factors on Vd and β-value with predictive models. It is expected that the outcomes of this study could be a contribution to a more precise BAC estimation in forensic psychiatry fields.