스마트 팜 농가의 신축적 작부체계에 대한 옵션가치 분석

Option Valuation of Flexible Cropping System for Smart Farming

This study analyzes the option value of flexible cropping system of smart farming with information and communication technology (ICT), which have been adopted for alternatives to traditional farming. In the study we consider two crops, paprika and tomato, that have very similar facilities in smart farming, thus no additional cost is required for switching crops. A simulation based real options approach is adopted to get the option value of flexible cropping system under uncertain market condition. Market prices of two crops are assumed as stochastic variables and proven to follow Mean Reverting Process. Results shows that the probabilities of cultivating paprika and tomato are fifty one percentage and forty nine percentage, respectively, when flexible decision making for crop selection is reflected. Farmers with smart farming change crops about 7.8 times for thirty years of business period. The option value of flexible cropping system of smart farming is 118,588 thousand won for thirty years, which is the difference between the flexible system and the system with paprika only. This implies that profit-ability analysis with option value may have positive impact on farmers’ adoption of smart farming.