경제지표, 범죄발생 지표의 민간경비 증감률에 대한 선행성 분석

Precedence Analysis of Economy and Crime on Private Security

본 연구는 경제지표 증감률, 범죄발생 증감률의 민간경비 증감률에 대한 선행성을 분석하는데 목적이 있으며, 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 국내총생산, 국내총소득, 국민총소득, 노동소득분배율, 최종소비지출, 총저축률, 가계순저축률, GDP디플레이터 등 경제지표 증감률의 경비업체 증감률에 대한 선행성은 유의미하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 경제지표 증감률의 경비원 증감률에 대한 선행성은 국내총생산(시차수 0), 국내총소득(시차수 0), 국민총소득(시차수 0), 최종소비지출(시차수 0), 총저축률(시차수 1), 가계순저축률(시차수 0), GDP디플레이터(시차수 0) 등이 유의미한 것으로 나타났으며, 노동소득분배율은 유의미하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 총범죄, 형법범죄, 재산범죄, 강력범죄, 특별범죄 등 범죄발생 증감률의 경비업체 증감률에 대한 선행성은 유의미하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 총범죄, 형법범죄, 재산범죄, 강력범죄, 특별범죄 등 범죄발생 증감률의 경비원 증감률에 대한 선행성은 재산범죄(시차수 0)에서 유의미한 것으로 나타났으며, 총범죄, 형법범죄, 강력범죄, 특별범죄 등은 유의미하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 경제지표 증감률, 범죄발생 증감률의 민간경비 증감률에 대한 선행성을 분석한 것에 대해 의미가 있으며, 향후 민간경비 성장과정에 대한 다양한 원인들과 그 선행성에 대한 후속연구가 필요하다.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the precedence of the increase/decrease rate of the economic indicators and the increase/decrease rate of the crime occurrence on the increase/decrease rate of the private security. The results of this study are as follows. First, there were no significant precedence of the increase/decrease rate of the economic indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Income, Gross National Income, Labor Income Share, Final Consumption Expenditure, Total Savings Rate, Household Savings Rate, GDP Deflator on the increase/decrease rate of the private security companies. Second, there were significant precedence of the increase/decrease rate of Gross Domestic Product(time difference 0), Gross Domestic Income(time difference 0), Gross National Income(time difference 0), Final Consumption Expenditure(time difference 0), Total Savings Rate(time difference 1), Household Savings Rate(time difference 0), GDP Deflator(time difference 0) among the economic indicators on the increase/decrease rate of the private security guards. And, there was no significant precedence of the increase/decrease rate of Labor Income Share among the economic indicators on the increase/decrease rate of the private security guards. Third, there were no significant precedence of the increase/decrease rate of the crime occurrence including the total crime occurrence, the criminal offense occurrence, the property crime occurrence, the violent crime occurrence, and the special crime occurrence on the increase/decrease rate of the private security companies. Fourth, there was significant precedence of the increase/decrease rate of property crime occurrence(time difference 0) among the increase/decrease rates of the crime occurrence on the increase/decrease rate of the private security guards. And, there were no significant precedence of the increase/decrease rate of the total crime occurrence, the criminal offense occurrence, the violent crime occurrence, and the special crime occurrence among the increase/decrease rates of the crime occurrence on the increase/decrease rate of the private security guards. This study is meaningful in analyzing the precedence analysis of economy and crime on private security, and it is necessary to follow up the various causes and the precedence of the private security growth process in the future.