일대일로 추진 전후 중국-아세안 농산물 교역구조와 경쟁력 변화 연구

An Analysis of Agricultural Trade Structure Changes and Competitiveness between China and ASEAN Countries after the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative

Purpose - This study analyzed structural changes in agricultural trade between China and ASEAN countries after China’s implementation of the One Belt, One Road initiative. Design/methodology/approach - This study analyzed the trade patterns by country and item, dividing the period into 2010-2013 and 2014-2018. The Trade Specialization Index (TSI) was calculated for each period to analyze export-specific and import-specific items between China and ASEAN countries. Findings - China’s fast-growing imports of agricultural products from ASEAN countries have declined since 2014 and then recovered, while exports of agricultural products to ASEAN countries have continued to grow rapidly. China’s imports of agricultural products from Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam have slowed somewhat since 2014, while imports from the rest of the ASEAN countries tended to decline or become somewhat stagnant. In the analysis of the Trade Specific Index between China and ASEAN countries, both export-specific and import-specific items in China increased. Research implications or Originality - Recently, South Korea has also been keen on economic cooperation with ASEAN countries under the new Southern Policy, while the agricultural sector recognizes ASEAN as a great potential export market for agricultural products and seeks to expand its agricultural exports. Amid these developments, competition in the Vietnamese market seems inevitable as most export-specific items overlap with China’s export-specific ones in terms of trade between Korea and Vietnam.