1980년대 한국 제조업 무역결정요인 분석

An Analysis on the Determinants of Trade in Korean Manufacturing Industry in 1980s

Purpose- The purpose of this study was to examine what determinants had an effect on the structural change of trade which had occurred to Korean manufacturing industry in 1980s when Korea experienced a rapid economic growth. Design/methodology/approach- After Leontief (1954)’s empirical analysis, Heckscher-Ohlin theorem was extended into multi-factor trade model including human capital. It was summed up as Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) equation: AT=V-sVw. This equation which consists of three variables-trade (T), factor intensity matrix (A) and relative abundance (V-sVw)-provides the theoretical base for the empirical test. As for the method of empirical test, I used logit analysis designed for the binary variable. This method makes it possible to test the correlation between the export probability of one goods and determinants of trade. Findings- According to the results of logit analysis, in early 1980s, because Korea was abundant in labor, labor was net-exported, while physical capital and human capital were net-imported. But in late 1980s, labor and human capital were net-exported, while physical capital was net-imported. It is found that human capital factor had emerged as significant factor when it comes to explaining the structural change of trade in Korean manufacturing industry in 1980s. Research implications or Originality- Korean experience of rapid economic growth in the past can be a guideline of the economic growth of developing countries in the future. In this context, this study is considered to be meaningful, being applied to the structural change of trade in developing countries such China and Vietnam etc which have promoted the similar economic growth strategy and which are closely linked to Korean economy.