SWMM 이중배수모형(1D-1D) 기반 실시간 도시침수 예측

Real-time Prediction of Urban Inundation based on SWMM 1D-1D Model

침수 위험성을 사전에 알림으로써 피해를 저감할 수 있는 침수예측기법 중 예측 강우 및 실시간 모의 기반의 침수예측기법을활용하기 위해 Major/Minor 시스템 개념을 적용하였다. 도시침수 모델링의 표준사례가 된 SWMM 1D-2D모형은 배수관망과도로 표면의 상호작용을 더 현실적으로 표현할 수 있지만 긴 모의시간 등 2차원 모형 특성 상 소규모 지역의 원인분석에제한적으로 사용되고 있다. 따라서 실시간 모의에 적용될 수 있을 만큼 빠르다고 입증된 SWMM 1D-1D모형을 실시간 침수예측에적용하였다. 모형의 정확도 향상을 위해 SWMM 1D-2D모형 모의결과를 이용하여 SWMM 1D-1D모형을 검정하고 SWMM5 DLL 및 EXCEL VBA를 활용하여 SWMM 1D-1D모형 모의결과를 추출함으로써 침수상황을 분석하였다. 최종적으로 1시간예측 강우를 가정하여 2014년 8월 25일 강우사상을 대상으로 SWMM 1D-1D모형 기반의 침수예측에 대한 적용 가능성을검토하였다.

The concept of a Major/Minor system was applied to use urban flood prediction techniques, based on rainfall forecasts and real-time simulations, to reduce flood damage, by notifying a possible flood risk in advance. The SWMM one dimensional (1D)-two dimensional (2D) model has become the standard approach used in urban flood modeling, as it can realistically express the interaction between drainage networks and road surfaces. However, it is limited to the flood analysis of small areas due to its two-dimensional model characteristics, such as its long simulation time. Therefore, the SWMM 1D-1D model, which is fast enough to be applied to real-time simulations, is applied to real-time flood forecasting. To improve the accuracy of the model, SWMM 1D-1D model was calibrated using the SWMM 1D-2D model simulation results, and the SWMM 1D-1D model simulation results were extracted using the SWMM5 DLL and EXCEL VBA to analyze the flood situation. Finally, the applicability of the SWMM 1D-1D model was reviewed based on a rainfall event that occurred on 25 August 2014, assuming an hour of predicted rainfall.