Numerical Precision on Judgmental Forecasting

Numerical precision refers to precision of a number defined by the number of ending zeroes. For example, 14,595 is comparatively precise number than 14,000; 14,000 is comparatively round number than 14,595.We investigate the effect of numerical information format on judgmental forecasting task. In other words, for demand forecasting task, we investigate the impact of information related to numerical precision on the task. Furthermore, we examine the use of numbers in forecasting by restricting precision level. More specifically, we compare the performance of numerically precise forecasting and numerically round forecasting. We formulate hypotheses based on existing researches related to judgmental forecasting, numerical precision, construal level theory. Moreover, we test the hypotheses using online experiment via Amazon’s Mechanical Turk.