오피스 임대료, 공실률 모형의 동학적 분석에 관한 연구

A Study on the Relationship between Rent and Vacancy Rate in the Office Rental Market:a Time Series Analysis

본 연구는 1999년 3분기부터 2012년 1분기까지의 시계열 자료를 이용하여 서울, 도심, 강남, 여의도권의 오피스 임대료, 공실률과 이에 영향을 미치는 거시경제변수와의 동학적 상관관계를 이론적·실증적으로 살펴보았다. 변수들 간에 장기균형 관계가 존재함을 확인 후에 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 이용해 충격반응과 분산분해분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 지역별로 차이는 존재하였으나 임대료는 국내실질총생산 충격에 양(+), 공실률에 음(-), 회사채수익률에 양(+)의 반응을 나타냈다. 또한 공실률은 임대료 충격에 양(+), 취업자수에 음(-), 건축허가면적에 양(+)의 반응을 나타냈다. 실증분석결과 이론모형과 동일함을 알 수 있었고 임대료와 공실률은 거시경제변수에 영향을 받으며 상호연관성이 크다는 것을 확인하였다. 이론모형과 실증분석 결과는 지역별로 차이는 존재하나 대부분 일치하였으며 경기활성화가 임대료 수준을 향상시키고 공실률을 낮출 수 있다는 것을 알 수가 있었다.

This research used time series data from the 3rd quarter of 1999 to the 1st quarter of 2012 to assess office rents and vacancy rates in Seoul, city center, Gangnam, Yeoui-do; and to observe the dynamic correlation between the office rents and vacancy rates and the macroeconomic variables affecting office rents and vacancy rates from a theoretical and empirical perspective. After confirming that there was a long run equilibrium relationship between the variables, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to conduct an impulse response analysis and a variance decomposition analysis. Results of the analysis showed differences across locations however, the following variables showed the following relationship respectively in regards to office rent: positive (+) for domestic actual total production, negative (-) for vacancy rate, positive (+) for corporate stock profitability, and positive (+) for office rent itself. Furthermore, the following variables showed the following relationship respectively in regards to vacancy rate: positive (+) for office rent, negative (-) for employment, positive (+) for area of construction permit, and positive (+) for vacancy rate itself. We also confirmed that thoretical models and empirical results were the same and office rent and vacancy were affected by macroeconomic variables, that their interrelationship was significant. There were differences across locations in regards to the results of the theoretical model and empirical analysis, however, most results coincided with each other, and we were able to confirm that economic stimulation enhanced office rent levels and decreased office vacancy rates.