북한 핵·미사일 위협실태 분석: 지금 이 순간에도 북한 핵무기와 미사일은 늘고 있다

An Analysis of North Korean Nuclear and Missile Threats

Last year, North Korea tested and introduced two types of ballistic missiles(a version of the Iskander missile and ATACMS) and two new Multiple Rocket Launchers (400 ㎜ large caliber and super MRL). The new weapons significantly improve North Korea’s ability to ambush because they use solid fuel; they are harder than the original SCUD and Iskander missiles to intercept because they fly at a lower altitude. Missiles in the ROK and US inventories cannot intercept an attack in which all the new missiles are launched simultaneously. Some argue that the new weapons are merely a generational improvement. It is more accurate to say that they represent a shift in North Korea’s short-range precision attack strategy. Since the North Korean leadership has declared that it will continue to develop nuclear weapons if there are no dramatic changes in relations with the United States, its nuclear weapons inventory continues to grow and is expected to reach 60 to 100 by the end of this year. If North Korea can attack the ROK army, US Armed Forces in Korea, US Armed Forces in Japan, and Guam and Hawaii with ICBMs, and can attack the heart of the South Korean and US armies with new, extremely accurate short-range missiles and MRLs, the alliance must develop new operational plans for and means of deterring the North.