농업관측 정보가 농가의 재배면적 조절에 미치는 영향

Effects of Agricultural Outlook Information on the Farmers’ Adjustment of Cultivation Area: the Case of Onion and Garlic

In this study, we analyze whether the information provided by the agricultural outlook center in Korea Rural Economic Institute is effective in adjusting the cultivation area by farmers. The empirical model is constructed such a way that outlook information and the cultivated area of farmers are included as the main explanatory and dependent variables. Data that can be obtained objectively, such as factors affecting the price or production cost, are also included as explanatory variables. The regression models are made by being divided into five types according to the response of farmers. As a result of empirical analysis, coefficient for the variable indicating information (which is the growth rate of intended cultivation area compared to the previous year) provided by the agricultural outlook center is estimated to be negative and statistically significant. This is interpreted that farmers are controlling the cultivation area based on the outlook information.