중소벤처기업의 비재무적요인 분석을 통한 도산예측에 관한 연구

A Study on Predicting the Bankruptcy through the Analysis of Non-Financial Factors of SME and Venture Businesses

Even though studies on predicting bankruptcy have been actively conducted for decades, a number of businesses go bankrupt even today. It is because bankruptcy predictions have focused on financial factors related to big or medium enterprises, which is inappropriate for applying to SME and venture businesses where business environment and financial factors are relatively weak. In this manner, accuracy of prediction cannot have been secured as well. According to characteristics of SME and venture businesses in particular, importance of non-financial factors rather than financial ones is raised as an issue again and a lot of research on this subject has been carried out since a few years ago. Based on features of non-financial factors, however, its range is broad and many of subjective elements are included, which makes it challenging to objectify. Additionally, since there also are many difficulties in constructing systems, funding and procuring personnel for practical reflection to actual business, research and its utilization seems to be unsatisfactory so far. Considering the characteristics of non-financial factors, this study conducted a survey of bankers specialized in money lending; total 266 firms that included bankrupted and not bankrupted among the customers enterprises of the bankers over the last 3 years. Various test methods were used for the empirical analysis including t-test, factorial analysis, logistic regression analysis and structural equation modeling. According to the analyses, it is suggested that industrial environment factor, company’s competitiveness factor and manager’s ability factor are closely connected each other and heavily related to the bankruptcy of firms; in particular, manager’s ability factor is very important element in predicting the bankruptcy of business. For this reason, it is suggested that the non-financial factors verified in this study can be utilized effectively in predicting the bankruptcy of business in the future. Some of the factors are being used systematically. It may be difficult to systematically implement other factors for the purpose of bankruptcy prediction; however, they are still effective tools to that end. In addition, this study is very useful in that it has achieved scientific improvement in the study of bankruptcy prediction as well as offered practical and useful enhancement through a series of systematic research processes.