세계금융위기와 우리나라 항만교역량 변동성 간 관계 분석

Analysis on the Relation between World Financial Crisis and the Volatility of the Port Volue in Korea

Purpose–This paper aims to investigate the contagion effects for four main container ports that are faced with competitive relations with one another with respect to the US market in the context of the financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach–In order to capture further time-variation in contagion effects and dynamic linkages between container ports, our paper makes use of an MGARCH model. Findings–As a result of the empirical analysis, the shock resulted from the 2008 financial crisis increased the volatility of the trade volume of Busan Port and Gwangyang Port, but did not affect Incheon Port and Pyeongtaek Port. Second, when the trade volume volatility of Incheon Port increased, the trade volume volatility of Busan Port and Gwangyang Port also increased, but Pyeongtaek Port had the opposite effect. Finally, Pyeongtaek Port was not disturbed by the crisis, but affecting the volatility of the other three major ports. Research implications or Originality–As Busan Port and Gwangyang Port have handled most of the port volumes in Korea, it is bound to absorb most of the impacts caused by changes in the external economy. This result suggests that resources for the crisis management capability against external shocks that would be allocated to Busan and Incheon ports first.