한국 내 16개 광역시도의 수출과 성장 간 인과관계에 관한 연구

The Causal Relationship between Export and Growth of 16 Metropolitan Cities and Provinces in Korea

Purpose– The purpose of this study is to analyze the causality between export and growth at the regional level, not at the national level, in a trade environment that has changed from extensive exportism to intensive exportism. Design/methodology/approach– In this study, panel time series data that combines time and space for the regional exports and regional growth of 16 metropolitan cities and provinces from 1Q of 2000 to 4Q of 2019 were used. The constructed data were analyzed using thepanel FMOLS model. Findings–The panel group’s export elasticity to regional growth was 0.39. This means that when regional exports increase by 1%, regional growth increases by 0.39%. However, the export elasticity of each group’s regional growth showed a big difference. Gwangju (0.76) had the highest export elasticity among the 16 metropolitan cities and provinces. In addition, Gangwon (0.64), Daegu (0.54), and Gyeonggi (0.53) were the regions with high export elasticity after Gwangju. On the other hand, the regions with very low export elasticity among the 16 metropolitan cities and provinces were Jeonnam (0.15) and Seoul (0.17). Research implications or Originality–Korea’s 16 metropolitan cities and provinces form a vicious cycle of bi-derectional casuality effects in regional exports and regional growth. However, since these 16 metropolitan cities and provinces have different growth effects due to varying exports, it is necessary to analyze the causes of such regional growth differences and propose a new growth strategy to promote efficient regional exports.