수출구조 변화와 환율전가 연구

An Analysis of the Structural Changes for Export and Exchange Rate Pass-through

Purpose– The purpose of this research was to analyzes the structural changes in the export market by identifying the causes of the weakening of the relationship between exchange rates and exports and the causes of the decline in export growth rates since the 2010s. Design/methodology/approach– This research used quarterly data for the period from 2000 to 2018 of KSIC export prices and export volume in Korea with first stage regressions long-run Dynamic OLS and second stage regressions short-run Error Correction Model. Findings–The results are follows. First, it was found that the rate of exchange rate pass-through was lower in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Second, both the export price exchange rate pass-through and the export volume exchange rate pass-through by industry showed the highest rates specifically in the steel industry. Thus, the steel industry seems to have maintained its price competitiveness as the Korea-Japan, Korea-China Export Similarity indices. Lastly, it was confirmed that both export price and export volume became more sensitive to global economic variables, which are non-price competition factors. Research implications or Originality– This research analyzed the causes of the decline in the export growth rate through the changes in export prices and export volumes due to intensified export competition since the 2010s. This research differs from previous researches in that it confirmed the relationship between exchange rates and exports through empirical analysis of external factors of structural change in the export market.