베이지안 VAR 모형을 이용한 해외 실물 및 금융충격의 국내 파급효과 분석

The Spillover Effects of External Real and Financial Shocks on the Korean Economy: A Bayesian VAR Approach

Purpose– This study aims to analyze the spillover effects of external real and financial shocks on the Korean economy during January 2000 and December 2019. Design/methodology/approach–Using the Bayesian VAR model, we analyze whether there were substantial changes in the effects of U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks after the global financial crisis. Findings–First, an increase in U.S. industrial production had long-term positive effects on Korea’s real and financial variables, except for Korea’s call rate. Second, the U.S. monetary policy shock measured by an increase in federal fund rate had significant negative effects on Korea’s current account balance and stock prices. Third, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) shock had a negative effect on Korea’s stock prices and the value of Korean won against the U.S. dollar. To sum it up, the spillover effects of external shocks have increased after the global financial crisis, implying that decoupling of domestic and foreign economies may be halted or reversed. Research implications or Originality– As the impact of the global financial crisis subsided and the global economy recovered, the spillover effects of external shocks on the domestic economy became also more significant. It should be noted that policy effectiveness may vary depending on interaction of internal and external economic conditions under the increasing uncertainty of the global economy.