본 연구는 지방정부의 효과적 재난관리 예산운영 방안을 모색하고자, 전문가 및 현장실무 활동가를 대상으로 AHP 기법을 활용한 중요도와 상대적 우선순위를 분석하였다. 이 과정에서 기대-불일치 이론을 통한 기대불일치에 대한 중요도를 함께 분석함으로써, 예산운영의 기준을 새롭게 모색하고자 하였다. 본 연구를 통하여 재난관리 예산결정에서 기여하고자 한 바는 재난관리 예산결정의 우선순위 평가요소로서 기대불일치 개념을 도입함으로써 ‘기대’에 대한 평가의 가치와 함께 결과 중심의 만족도와는 차별화된 예산운영의 한 기준으로서 기대불일치를 제안함으로써 재난관리 예산결정을 위한 발전방향을 제시하고자 하였다.
This study raised the question “Why do local governments make passive budget investments although they can minimize damages caused by disasters through the investment of disaster prevention budgets?” and conducted analysis from the viewpoint of rent-seeking theory in the public choice theory in order to find methods for improving the efficient operation of disaster management budgets by local governments, focusing on variables affecting budgetary decision-making in local governments’ disaster management. In this context, we discussed, in connection to disaster management, the service to be provided by local governments. In the results of analyzing the priority of factors, which were perceived important by specialists in local governments’ budgetary decision-making for disaster management, through AHP analysis, the importance of prevention budget was recognized relatively very highly. In addition, the results of testing by measuring element for each budget type were as follows. First, in local governments’ budgetary decision-making for disaster management, importance and priority for prevention budget was high in order of legal system → cost-effect → financial policy → expectation-disconfirmation. For recovery budget, on the other hand, it was high in order of cost-effect → legal system → expectation-disconfirmation → financial policy. Based on these results, we made suggestions as follows for improving local governments’ budgetary decision-making in disaster management and their rent-seeking behavior.
II. 재난관리 예산결정 연구와 지대추구 문제