서울지역 주택시장에 대한 정부의 금융정책별 동태적 영향 연구

A Study on the Dynamic Effects of the Government’s Detailed Financial Policy on the Housing Market in Seoul

정부의 금융정책을 첫째, 경기부양 위한 한국은행 기준금리인하 정책 둘째, 부동산 투기 방지를 위한 대출규제 정책 셋째, 서민금융 지원을 위한 최고금리 인하정책으로 분류할 경우, 정부가 경기 부양을 위해 금리인하 정책을 추진하지만, 부동산 규제정책에 따라 경제의 주요영역인 부동산 시장과 그 관련 산업에 부정적 영향이 미치고, 부동산 시장의 부진은 관련 경제 축소로 이어져, 금리인하 정책의 주요 목적이었던 경기 부양은 성과를 내기 어려울 수도 있다. 이는 금융정책의 영향이 복합적임을 의미하고, 이에 따라 다방면에서 각 금융정책들이 경기조절, 부동산조절, 서민지원에 어떤 영향이 예상되는지 확인해 볼 필요가 있다. 따라서 각 금융정책과 그에 따른 대출금리가 서울시 주택시장에 미치는 영향을 대출별로 확인해 보고자 한다. 각 금융정책이 서울시 주택시장에 얼마나 영향을 미치는 지 확인해 봄으로써 앞으로의 정책수립 과정과 부동산시장 참여자들이 효과를 예상하는데 기여할 수 있을 것이다.

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of each financial policy and the resulting loan rate on the housing market in Seoul. By looking at how each financial policy affects the housing market in Seoul, it will contribute to the policy-making process and to anticipate the effects of real estate market participants. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This paper uses the housing sales index and the housing charter index as the dependent variables and each loan interest rate as an independent variable. In order to analyze time series data of each variable, Granger causality analysis, impact response analysis, and variance decomposition analysis were performed using E-VIEWS program. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS If the government raises the Bank of Korea’s benchmark interest rate or increases its currency, it will have a positive impact on the Seoul housing sales market and the charter market. Monetary growth is positive for Seoul’s housing sales market, and the impact of the Bank of Korea’s interest rate and the amount of money will be extinguished within three to five periods. In addition, the impact on the housing sales market in Seoul will be extinguished within six to nine periods due to loan interest rate adjustments. The impact of changes in loan interest rates is found to be reversed in the Seoul housing sales market and the housing charter market. 2. RESULTS If the standard interest rate is lowered for the purpose of stimulating the economy, the lending rate and the increase in the amount of money may occur, causing the Seoul Housing Sales Index to rise. If the government restricts mortgage rate cuts or raises lending rates to regulate real estate, the economy could fall. If the government lowers the microlending rate for financial support for the public, Seoul’s charter price index may rise, increasing the burden on ordinary households using the charter. In addition, if the mortgage lending rate rises in order to lower the Seoul housing sales index, the economic downturn and the rise in charter market prices may be occurred.