중국과 미국경제성장이 東아시아국가 수출에 미치는 효과에 대한 비교 분석

Comparative Analyses of United States and China s Influence on East Asian Countries Exports

This paper empirically analyzes the degree of china s influence on other East Asian countries exports. In order to investigate the degree of influences, I apply VAR model to get Chinese GDP s impulse response functions(IRFs) to the countries exports and variance decomposition(VDs) of other East Asian countries exports. I compare the China s and United States GDP IRFs and show VDs of east Asian countries exports to estimate relative importance of change in China s and United States GDP growth rate in explaining change of other East Asian countries s exports. I find that based on IRFs, all East Asian countries interested except Japan show larger exports response to change of China s GDP than United States GDP. Also, It is found that based on VDs, change in East Asian countries exports is more explained by China s GDP shock than United States GDP shock. Especially, Korean exports the most respond to the China s GDP shock in the all East Asian countries interested. In considering the fact that for all East Asian countries except Korea, their exports still more depend on United States than China, the analysis results are very surprising. The results means that Chinese influence on East Asian countries exports is larger than United States. However, it is found that in contrast to other East Asian countries, Japan s exports more depends on United States than China.