한중교역 증가의 원인에 대한 분석

An Anatomy of Trade Growth between Korea and China

This paper explains bilateral trade structure of Korea and China with decomposed trade data and investigate trade growth would be induced by intension of specialization in the existing goods or by extension of new varieties. Decomposing bilateral trade growth, of over 22 times since 1998, reveals a number of interesting findings. First, the rate of dependence on exports in specific commodities is revealed to increase on China’s world trade and Korea’s world and china export however it is decreased on China’s export to Korea. Second, Comparing with export share, there was a significant reorientation in exports, and that the reshuffling of export products during the expansion was mainly in the mid-upper rank products. Third, to utilize the more disaggregated trade data at the 8- and 10-digit levels, we examine the contribution of new varieties to export growth using two complementary methods. The results show that intensive margin and extensive margin explains bilateral trade growth almost equally. So this result strongly supports that new varieties have an important roll in Korea and China trade especially China’s export to Korea. Finally, the nominal unit prices of China’ import products did not changed during 10 years. Considering real dollar value increasing 27% during same periods, we concluded increasing extensive margin would be trade off to worsened terms-of-trade.