동아시아 FTA Hub 전략의 경제적 효과와 타당성 검토

The Analysis of the Economic Effect of the EAFTA Hub Strategy and its Feasibility

East Asian countries have continued to pursue an active FTA policy since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. In the region, ASEAN＋1 type of FTAs are already in effect or have been concluded between the ASEAN and the three Northeast Asian countries (Korea, Japan, China) along with the deeper integration of the AFTA which combines the ten ASEAN member countries. At the same time, active discussions have been conducted on a possible FTA that covers the entire East Asian region, an East Asia FTA (EAFTA). If this EAFTA is concluded, it is expected to surpass the size of NAFTA and to have even greater ripple effects. According to the CGE analysis on the economic effects of an East Asia FTA (EAFTA), the FTA is expected to be beneficial to the countries in the region. A regional FTA among countries in Northeast Asia or East Asia will have greater rewards than bilateral FTAs between two countries. In particular, Korea is deemed to be the greatest beneficiary of an EAFTA. And if China and Japan do not conclude an FTA and Korea concludes FTAs with ASEAN, China and Japan and becomes an East Asian FTA hub, the economic effects are expected to be even greater. Notwithstanding the economic benefits that come from being an FTA hub, themerits of an East Asia FTA covering the entire region will be even greater. First of all, it will be possible to lower the rising transaction costs that ensue from the intertwined regional FTA network. Also, higher economic efficiency is expected in the mid-term and long-term from the harmonization of the different systems. Therefore, the straightforward strategy for Korea would be to pursue an East Asia FTA and strategically promote FTAs with Japan and China to get a strategic advantage in the future East Asia FTA negotiation process. In fact, under the current situation in which an FTA among the three major countries in Northeast Asia, Korea, China and Japan, is deterred by various obstacles, an East Asia FTA could be the favored alternative. This is because an FTA combining the entire region could alleviate the conflicting interests of individual industry sectors that may arise from a bilateral FTA. In addition, it would be possible to establish a more flexible level of trade liberalization in goods under an East Asia FTA.