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KCI등재 학술저널

중국의 FTA 추진 결정요인 실증분석

An Empirical Analysis on Determinants of China s FTA Policy

China is now pursuing FTAs with a number of countries. Interestingly, China s FTA partners are concentrated on geographically adjacent developing countries and non-Western ones. Dealing with the objectives of China s FTA, this paper analyzes empirically the decisive factors for China to select its FTA partners. By employing the Probit Gravity model, this paper carries out a regression analysis in which China s pursuing an FTA with a country is chosen as the dependent variable in response to a set of explanatory factors affecting the counterpart country s characteristics. Regression results show that the response variable is substantially related with the counterpart country s endowment of natural resources, its geographic distance from China, and its colonial experience in China. On the contrary, the counterpart country s economic size, industrial structure and its economic interdependence with China have little relation with the response variable. These results imply that China tends to mainly promotes FTAs with (1) geographically adjacent countries and (2) countries with abundant natural resources, and (3) non- Western countries without any colonial experience in China. More specifically, China appears to prioritize FTA partner countries that will help China to secure strategic natural resource, and to shape a Sino-centric regionalism in Asia.

Ⅰ. 문제의 제기

Ⅱ. FTA 추진 결정요인의 이론적 배경

Ⅲ. 실증분석 모형의 설계

Ⅳ. 실증분석 결과

Ⅴ. 분석결과의 함의 및 시사점

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