중국 경제의 과잉투자 현상에 대한 실증적 연구

An Empirical Study on the China s Over-Investment Problem

The object of this paper is empirically analyses the reason of Chinese over-investment. Many studies pointed out the several reason of overinvestment since 2000 which is 1) over-investment caused by local government or local level firm, 2) over liquidity caused by high credit growth, 3) overseas shock like fast increasing black ink balance and FDI. Using local level data form 2000 to 2005, this paper set up an investment function and find out over liquidity, local firm’s excess profits and economic growth are strongly impact to Investment. These empirical results give a meaningful implication for Chinese antioverheating policy. From now on, Beijing government use policy mix which is deal with every tool related on anti-overheating including interest rate policy. However this result suggests that overall tightening monetary policy like credit management on local level loan window and appreciation.