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KCI등재 학술저널

중국 무역통계의 마술 상자: 홍콩

Hong Kong : Magic Box of Chinese Trade Statistics

This study aims to analyze Chinese foreign trade statistics discrepancies with Hong Kong. Contents analyzing on trade statistical discrepancies of individual country dimension, as a result, would be expressed with figures as foreign trade statistics disparity of Hong Kong and China. Also, comprehensive analysis on foreign trade statistics differences with the China and Hong Kong is synthetically so useful to understand on Chinese foreign trade statistics related with individual country dimension. We can gain many suggestions why foreign trade statistics disparity occurs, how to approaches to revise Chinese trade statistical problems on individual country dimension. Main analysis of these paper is as follows: First, comparison of foreign trade statistics between the China with Hong Kong and good grasp of the properties of statistical structure. Second, comparative analysis on structure of transit trade of Hong Kong in terms of weight of individual country by using Hong Kong s reexport statistics. Third, how to calculate markup that display degree of value added in transit precess at Hong Kong. Understanding to degree of foreign trade statistics reestimation and several problems that happen in case of using markup to reduce foreign trade statistics discrepancies between China and individual country. Lastly, calculating markup in foreign trade statistics of Hong Kong and China through one of methods above explained. Fourth, Is it possible to solve the existing trade returns discordance in China-Hong Kong trade by readjusting Hong Kong s re-exportation of goods? Results gotten through study of this paper synthetically summarize as follows. First, foreign trade statistics discrepancies of Hong Kong and China has been occurred mostly in difference between export of Hong Kong to China and import of China to Hong Kong(Westbound), but these foreign trade statistics disparities could be construed nearly by reestimation including re-export of Hong Kong to China. Second, trade statistics disparity (Eastbound) between import of Hong Kong from china and export of China to Hong Kong is relatively smaller than trade statistical discrepancies(Westbound). But, even if taking into consideration of reexport of Hong, it is constraints to reduce greatly original eastbound trade statistical disparity. This hint that Chinese export statistics to the world via Hong Kong has been calculated with one more principles different from most of countries. Recently, Chinese trade volume has been increased so fast and would be excessed over $100 million sooner or later. Foreign trade statistics disparity of China and Hong Kong attributed to fast trade volume enlargement of the China could become so much bigger. This means that foreign trade statistics discrepancies between China and each of trade partner country could be deepened at the same time. If statistical disparities between Chinese foreign trade statistics as second largest country in the world trade volume and main trade partner countries would be deepened, serious problems like inefficient dispute and disaccordable conflict in the bilateral trade negotiation could be triggered on world trade order. Therefore, complementation of new criteria to minimize statistical disparity of China and Hong Kong and agreement of consistent calculation system of trade statistics should be taken into consideration, also multilateral cooperations including WTO to overcome various statistical inconsistencies should be established urgently.

Ⅰ. 연구목적

Ⅱ. 홍콩과 중국의 무역통계 비교

Ⅲ. 홍콩 재수출의 통계구조

Ⅳ. 홍콩 경유 무역의 마크업

Ⅴ. 홍콩과 중국의 무역통계 재추정

Ⅵ. 결론

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