중국의 에너지 부족 현상과 파급효과 분석

Analysis of China s Energy Shortage and Its Implications

China s energy issue is a hot topic which attracts attention from diverse fields. China s energy demand has increased so rapidly in recent years years that domestics supply could mot match the demand. In particular, China s oil import has surged dramatically. There arose active discussions about the domestic and international repercussions of China s energy shortage. A pessimistic view is that energy shortage will from a critical bottleneck limiting sustained growth of Chinese economy. Also, some concerns were raised on the oil-price hike originated from China. This paper looks into the trend and structure of China s energy demand and supply. It has found that China became a net energy importer in late 1990s, with the net import increasing rapidly thereafter. In particular, China s dependence on the imported oil reached almost 50% in 2004, after in first became a net oil importer in 1993. However, China encounters difficulty in increasing domestic energy supplies, except coal. China s immediate energy problem is the shortage in electricity supply, which restraints production activities in many areas of China. It will take several years to resolve this problem. The fundamental energy problem is the oil shortage and consequent dependence on imported oil. Chinese government began to implement energy polices to meet this challenge. The demand-side policy focuses on the improvement of energy efficiency mainly by rationalizing the price structure, through which they can control the growth rate of energy demand. The supply-side policy focuses on developing new energy resources both in and outside of Chinese territory, and promoting substitution of other energy like coal or nuclear energy for oil. The future of China s energy would not be doomed, although its dependence on foreign energy is likely to increase further. The sensational story of world-wide oil crisis due to China would not materialize. As time passes, the market itself will adjust, with some increase in oil-price and increased investment for new oil supply and other energy. The demand switch to other energy and improvement of energy efficiency will arise throughout the world. Also, the China s policy will take effect in limiting the growth rate of demand and adjusting its own energy supply.