남북관계 변수가 국내株價 변동에 미치는 영향과 정책적 함의

North Korean Variable s Influence on the Change of the Index of Stocks and Policy Suggestions

This study is to analyze the correlation between the composite price index of stocks and the sixty-two events and polices relating to North Korea during the period of ten years from the mid-term of the presidency of former president, Noe Tae Woo, in 1990 to the North Korean nuclear weapon crisis in October 2003. The occurrences are regarded as having a positive or negative effect on the politics, economy and society of South Korea during past ten years. With the research of change of correlation, it is recommended that the countermeasures for the prevention of decline of the composite price index of stocks be carefully devised. The index should be significantly considered in the process of carrying out the policy toward North Korea, as shown in the unification of Germany. The direction of the index, in the short-term, is closely related with the recovery of South Korea s national credibility in the international capital market and, in a medium-range term, will be the barometer of entry to the developed country. However, it is not so easy to measure in a method of econometrics the pure effect of North Korean variables on the share market since there are too many qualitative variables in the model. The followings are the results of this research to study the correlation between the index and the variable of North and South Korean relation. First, the trend of stock prices that the North Korean variable plays great role in stock exchange, having a negative influence on the market, shows the type of V character that sharply declines and rises in reaction in stock prices. Second, comparing to other issues of the stock market, the North Koreans one s effect is comparatively short-term. Third, there are always no statistically significant correlation between the index and the variables. Fourth, the North Korean one s influence on the stock market has been decreased since IMF crisis in 1998. Fifth, the foreign investors who share almost half of the portion of the South Korean stock market do not consider the North Korean one as a more serious negative factor than local investors on deciding to buy the stocks in the market. Sixth, the variables and policies that improve the relation between North and South Korea have an instant and immediate influence on the market. Seventh, the unexpected happenings of accidents and the military action of North Korea have a more strong effect on the market than the publication of policies toward the North Korea by the South Korean government.