패널 VAR 모형을 이용한 서울시 주택매매시장의 동태적 특성

Dynamic Characteristics of Housing Price in Seoul Using Panel VAR Model

The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamic characteristics of the housing market in Seoul. For purposes, from January 2007 to June 2019, the panel VAR model was estimated using weekly apartment price, apartment transaction volume, apartment rental price in 25 regions of Seoul and corporate bond, housing construction permit performance. As a result of the study, it was found that the housing price is influenced by the demand factors in the short term, but the influence of the supply factors increases in the long term. Before the global financial crisis, long-term and stable relationships were established between housing prices and housing demand and supply factors, but after the global financial crisis, long-term and stable relationships were not established. Therefore, the government should establish a policy related to demand factors in the short term and a policy related to supply in the long term to stabilize housing prices. In addition, it is necessary to explore factors affecting housing prices in addition to supply and demand factors.