CGE 모형을 이용한 미･중 무역마찰에 따른 농업부문 영향 분석

The Impact of the U.S.-China Trade Dispute on the Korean Agricultural Market Using Computational General Equilibrium Model

This study examines the impact of the U.S. and China trade dispute on the Korean agricultural market. We use the Global Trade Analysis Policy (GTAP) model and set two scenarios: (1) retaliatory scenario and (2) Armington assumption scenario. The results show that Chinese imports for soybean, pork, fruit, and sorghum are reduced because of Chinese retaliatory tariff to the U.S. As reducing in Chinese imports, U.S. agricultural exports are also reduced. Korea has direct and indirect effect from the U.S. and China trade dispute. Especially, imports of soybean and pork, which China imposes a large tariff, are increased in Korea. When imperfect substitute relation eases off, the impact of the U.S. and China trade dispute on the Korean agricultural market would be larger.