동아시아의 산업내무역과 결정요인 분석

An Analysis of Intra-Industry Trade in East Asia

In this paper we have focused attention on bilateral intra-industry trade(IIT) between Japan and other East Asian countries including South Korea. The major findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Grubel & Lloyd IIT index of South Korea and Japan are rising consistently in 1990s. But Japan’s IIT index is still lower than that of Korea as well as other Western industrialized countries. (2) The IIT in manufacturing sectors( SITC 5~8) has become increasingly important between Japan and the East Asian countries(except Hong Kong) in 1990s. The increasing index of IIT shows the rapid change of the industrial structure among the East Asian economies during this period. However, among other major East Asian countries, Korea shows the highest values of IIT indices( 49.4% in 1998), followed by Taiwan(39.9%), Philippines(38.2%) and Thailand(36.9%). This paper has also attempted to analyse empirically the determinant factors of IIT between Japan and other East Asian countries including South Korea. Using the unadjusted Grubel & Lloyd IIT indices in manufacturing sectors with a trade imbalance variable in the regression equations, we found that market size, standard of living and exchange rate have positive impacts on IIT, while the effects of differences in market size, economic distance, geographical distance, and trade imbalance are negative. These results are consistent with priori expectations and offer some empirical foundations to the further theoretical extension.