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KCI등재 학술저널

韓日中 FTA의 當爲性과 동북아 變數

What Korea-Japan-China s FTA Should Do and Northeast Asian Variables for It

The conditions of New Regionalism are unfaborable to Korea, Japan and China which are out of regional economic communities. To get rid of such a disadvantage, Korea-Japan-China s FTA is required. The FTA of these three countries is also necessary to revive the dynamism of their economic growth. What Korea-Japan-China s FTA should do is primarily due to its bigger effect than bilateral FTAs. In the case of the FTA completion, intra=regional trade between three countries, on the whole, has kept incresing since the 1990s owing to China s throwing market open, Sino-Korean diplomatic normalization, etc. However, the intra-regional trade share of three countries is far below those of the existing trade blocs. And the intra-regional trade intensity index, 1.0∼1.7 from 1990 to 2000, is rather small in comparison with those of other regions. Such small intra-regional trade share and intensity index are caused by no existence of establishment for the regional trade promotion. So far, trade between three countries has wholly depended on market mechanism. This implies that three countries trade will possibly expand fast on establishing regional trade promotion system such as FTA. Krugman s natural trading bloc theory also shows that intra-regional trade volume can increase faster between nearby partners. Therefore, even if Korea, Japan and China respectively enter into FTAs with the other regional countries, their trade volumes will be hard to override the intra-regional trade volume made by Korea-Japan_China s FTA. Both necessary and sufficient conditions for Korea-Japan-China s FTA are enough satisfied. Neverthelss, all the existing Northeast Asian variables for it are difficult problems the solutions of which cannot easily be found. Long-standing feud and antagonism still induce serious tensions in the region. Wihtout being aware of the U.S. who has a strong influence both politically and economically, it is actually not easy to pursue Korea-Japan-China s FTA. In addition, negotiations in agricultural sectors and structural adjustments in industrial sectors for the FTA will not be easy to go. To overcome such difficulties of Northesast Asian variables, a way-out is considerable. That is either Korea-Japan-China plus the U.S. or Trans-Pacific Free Trade Agreement(TPFTA) linking Korea-Japan-China and NAFTA.

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 논의의 배경

Ⅲ. 한일중 FTA의 당위성 검토

Ⅳ. 한일중 FTA 先決條件으로서 동북아 변수

Ⅴ. 결론

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