한국 신용카드 이용액 증가가 통화량에 미치는 영향분석

벡터자기회귀모형을 중심으로

The purpose of this paper is to verify and statistically analyze the effects of credit card expenditure on money supply fluctuation. For this analysis, statistical analysts was made regarding credit card spending volume, M₂ and many other related parameters based on time-series data for 15 years from 1985 to 1999. This statistical analysis was made mainly through Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, and VAR Model analysis. As a result, it was verified that the increase of credit card usage doesn t have a direct effect on M₂. It could be concluded that credit card as a sound payment instrument is never the main cause of increase of money supply, but it would become an essential economic creation contributing to human life in the coming century. Therefore, the monetary authorities must develop the credit card industry, so as to improve positive functions of credit cards and to keep controlling some of its negative functions minimally.