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KCI등재 학술저널

交易을 통한 平和理論과 南北韓 經濟交流·協力

The Theory of Peace through Trade and Economic Exchange between South and North Korea

The interaction between international trade and political variables has been a major topic for classical economists Marxists, Keynesians, and political economists. Standard trade theory, however, does not investigate the link between economic and political variables. Recently, the link between bilateral trade and political conflict/cooperation has become central in the international political economy literature. The question of how trade affects international conflict has received increasing attention in an era when the strategic preoccupations of the Cold War seem to be less important. Yet, scholars of Peace research in korean peninsular have frequently neglected this topics. Theorically, liberals emphasize the mutual benefits to be gained from trade between and among countries, expect economic interdependence to produce strong incentives for peace and, therefore, less conflict. The idea that free trade is a fundamental cause of peace is not new. Writing in 1748, Montesquieu succinctly states that peace is the natural effect of trade , because trade is motivated by national essentials and creates mutual gains to both partners. Countries that engage in trade will be peaceful, according to Angell, because they do not want to face a potential reduction, due to a conflict, of welfare gains from trade. With the liberal theory, I specify the expected welfare model under the assumption that each of the nations involved gain social welfare benefits from trade. The presumption is that trade occurs in an environment that is initially peaceful. Introducing conflict into such a peaceful environment would negatively affect the terms of trade by raising trading costs, leaving at least one of the countries worse off. So the implicit price of being hostile is the diminution of welfare associated with potential trade losses. Based on the model. I investigate whether the economic exchanges between South and North Korea mitigate conflict, using a few simple variables. The empirical results do not support liberalism s hypothesis that trade reduces conflict. However, the empirical test in this study is too simple to conclude that liberal theory can not apply to Korean peninsulas. Also, it is premature to declare the sunshine policy has been only a fantacy, not applicable, especially to North Korea. The empirical results provide an important opportunity for theoretical and empirical refinement or reformulation.

Ⅰ. 序論

Ⅱ. 交易을 통한 平和理論

Ⅲ. 남북한 경제교류협력의 기대효용모형

Ⅳ. 남북한 경제교류와 긴장에 관한 실증분석

Ⅴ. 결론

참고문헌

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