교역과 환율이 직접투자에 미치는 효과 연구

The Effects of Trade and Exchange Rate on Direct Investment : A Focus on RCEP Agreement-Concluded Parties

RCEP가 체결되었을 경우에 대비하여 패널분석을 이용하여 교역과 환율이 RCEP협정 당사국의 직접투자에 미치는 영향을 연구한다. ODI, Y, Y/P, EXCHANGE, TRADE 등 5가지 변수에 대해 패널단위근검정을 하였다. 그 결과 수준변수보다는 1차차분변수에서 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 분석되었다. 패널공적분검정 결과는 Pedroni의 잔차패널 공적분 검정 결과는 Panel v-Statistic와 Panel rho-Statistic를 제외한 검정에서 1% 유의수준에서 공적분이 없다는 귀무가설을 기 각하였다. Pooled OLS 결과는 Adjusted R-squared가 68.3%로 나타나 직접투자의 약 68%를 해당 설명변수가 설명하고 있다. 또한 설명변수가 모두 1% 유의수준에서 유의하였다. Hausman Test 결과에 따라 Fixed Effect Model을 선택하였고, 그 결과는 Adjusted R-squared가 79%로 나타나 직접투자의 약 79%를 해당 설명변수가 설명하고 있다. 또한 설명변수가 모두 1% 유의수준에서 유의하였다.

To be prepared for conclusion of RCEP, this study examined the effects of trade and exchange rate on direct investment of the RCEP Agreement-concluded parties using a panel analysis. A panel unit root test was conducted to analyse direct investment, national income, per capital national income, exchange rate and trade. As a result, it was discovered that the 1st difference variables were statistically significant in comparison with level variables. The results of Pedroni s panel cointegration test rejected that there was cointegration in the significance level of 1% in tests except Panel v-Statistic and Panel rho-Statistics tests. As the results of the Pooled OLS, adjusted R-squared was 68.3%, which explained about 68% of direct investment. Also, all of the explanatory variables were significant in the significance level of 1%. According to Hausman Test, a Fixed Effect Model was adopted and the adjusted R-squared was 79%, which explained about 79% of direct investment. Also, all of the explanatory variables were significant in the significance level of 1%.