우리나라 교역구조와 환율이 경상수지에 미치는 영향

Effects of Trade Structure and Exchange Rate on Current Account in Korea

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the determinants of current accounts utilizing an exchange rate (ER), terms of trade (NET), industrial activity (IPI), world import volume (WIM), trade share of the China and Japan (CHJP), proportion of service trade (SERV). The period examined is 1991:1 through 2010:2. It is tested under different cases such as whether variables were cointegrated and whether there was an equilibrium relationship. The result showed that the hypothesis of no cointegrated vector could be rejected at the 5 percent level. The estimated error correction model showed that adjustment speed is fast. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to get additional information by considering the responses of the current account to the shocks of economic variables. The results indicate that current account responds negatively to industrial activity and proportion of service trade, and then decays very quickly.