제약 산업의 부실예측모형 개발에 관한 연구

The Insolvency Prediction Model in the Pharmaceutical Industry

본 논문은 재무제표정보를 이용하여 제약업의 부실예측모형을 개발하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해, 1991년에서 2003년까지 13개년 간 부실이 발생한 23개 기업을 부실기업으로 정의하고 해당 기간 중 부실이 발생하지 않은 기업을 정상 기업으로 정의하였다. 개별 재무지표의 부실예측력을 t-test를 사용하여 분석하고, 이를 통해 유의한 것으로 선정된 재무지표에 기초하여 로짓 모형으로 부실예측모형을 구성하였다. 부실예측모형의 안정성을 파악하기 위하여 규모, 시기에 따라 연구표본을 분할하여 각각 추정하여 안정성을 검토하였으며 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 제약업에서 매출액순이익율, 금융비용/매출액, 부채비율이 유의한 예측지표이며 한 가지 아쉬운 것은 연구개발집중도와 특허출원 수가 유의하지 않았다는 점이다.

The objectives of this paper are to develop a distress prediction model with the financial information in pharmaceutical industry. We made the dataset which were composed of 19 distressed and 429 non-distressed. The analysis of distress prediction of pharmaceutical companies was accomplished according to the distress definition. The analysis was carried out as two steps. The first step was the univariate analysis which was used for checking the prediction power of individual financial variable. The T-test is used to identify the differences in financial variables between the distressed group and the non-distressed group.The second step was to develop distress prediction model with logistic regression. The variables showed the significant differences in univariate analysis were selected as the prediction variables. The financial ratios used in the logistic regression model were selected by backward elimination method. To test stability of the distress prediction model, the whole sample was divided as the sub-samples according to size, period. It s result showed the stability. The results of the logistic analysis were as follows. Stability ratio and Profitability showed the significant effect on the distress.