Forecasting of Monthly Mean of Surface Air Temperature on Korean Peninsula

In the conventional time series analysis, a process contains often modeled as three additive components: linear trend, seasonal effect and random noise. In this paper, we performed analysis of surface air temperature in the Korean peninsula using decomposition method in time series analysis. Applications to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR) Collaborative Reanalysis data in the Korean peninsula discussed.The main finding is that the surface air temperature trend estimated for January 1948 to February 2006 was not statistically significant at 0.4321 C. We also consider forecasting aspects.