통화공급과 국제수지 변동과의 실증적 연구

A Case Study on the Change of the Balance of Payments and the Supply of Money

본 논문에서는 1971년에서 1992년까지 한국금융기관의 시계열자료를 사용하고 통화량은 M1, M2를 사용하여 설명변수중 실질소득과 물가 및 통화승수 및 국내여신의 통계적 유의성이 검정되었다. 추정결과에서 이자율이나 외환자산 등은 유의한 설명변수로 부적당하고 실질GNP나 물가수준 등이 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 국제수지에 대한 통화론적 접근방법이 대체적으로 우리 나라 경제에도 타당한 ( R2 = 0.998 4,0.9977 ) 것으로 평가되어 진다.

This study attempts to analyse the effect of the change on the balance of payments on the supply of monetary aggregates, with special reference to Korean experience. The Korean economy has deepened its foreign dependency in terms of foreign outstanding debts which has been increased substantially during the last two decades. This study also aims to examine the change of monetary aggrergate using the time-series data of the M1 and M2 of the money stock during the period of 1971-1992. The approach was adopted for the estimation of the effects of exogneous variables on the domestic money supply. This approach is the typical monetary approach to the balance of payments to examine effect of the central bank s foreign reserve assets, price-level, real GNP and interest rate on the supply of domestic credit. In such a case M2, monetary multiplier, real GNP and price level highly effected the change in the endogneous variable at the separately each 3.352, 12.205, 6.737 significant level. It is found that the foregin reserves held by the central bank is inversely related with the supply of domestic credit, with the estimated value of the being 1.494 and interest rate value of the being 0.589. The data used was “The Central Bank s Monthly Report” for 21 years. In such a case M1, monetary multiplier, price level, real GNP effected the change in the endognous variables separately 2.331, 12.660, 5.669. But it is found that the foreign reserves held by the central bank inversely related with the supply of domestic credit, with the estimated value of the being 1.033 and interest rate value of the being minus 0.456. Consequently, this result implicitly shows that vivid change in the GNP, price level, the change in the balance of payments on the supply of monetary aggregate approach have been estimated as valuable proprieties of the Korean economy.