오존농도의 예측 모형에 관한 연구

Statistical Modeling for the Surface Ozone Concentration

본 연구에서는 부산 신평동 지역의 기후인자(풍속, 기온, 노점온도, 기압, 상대습도, 강우량, 일사량)와 대기오염물질(NO2, SO2, CO(단위: ppm), PM10(단위: ug/m3)) 자료를 사용하여, 1) 오존농도의 연도별, 월별, 시간별, 요일별 특성을 알아보고, 2) 오존농도와 기후인자, 대기오염물질 간의 관련성을 밝혔으며, 3) 오존고농도에 대한 1시간 후 예측모형을 연구하였다.

This study was carried out to develop a statistical model for the surface ozone concentration. The one-hour average concentration of ozone(O3), nitrogen oxides(NO2), PM10, sulfur dioxide(SO2) and meteorological factors (i. e., wind velocity, temperature, dew point, pressure, relative humidity, precipitation, insolation intensity), during the period of 1998 to 2000, were analysed. First, we examined the patterns of the ozone concentration by monthly, hourly, annually and weekly. Secondly, in order to find out the degree of association among the ozone concentration, air pollutants(CO, NO2, PM10, SO2), and meteorological factors(wind velocity, temperature, dew point, pressure, relative humidity, precipitation, insolation intensity), we used the statistical methods of correlation analysis, analysis of variances. Finally, we examined the 1 hour prediction models of the ozone concentration using the Logistic regression analysis and decision tree analysis.