我国农产品进口对期货贸易价格影响的研究

Research on the Influence of Import of Agricultural Products on Futures Trade Price in China: Taking Soybean as an Example

2019年我国大豆进口8551.1万吨后，巨大的进口量对于国内外期货价格到底存在怎样的影响。通过建立VAR模型进行分析探讨，探究进口量对于期货贸易的影响。研究结果表明: 中国大豆进口对国外期货价格解释作用弱，大豆进口量对国外期货价格影响小，大豆市场作为买方垄断市场之一，却缺乏定价权与话语权。本文完善了大豆进口量对期货价格影响的相关研究，为实现进口福利最大化，完善国内期货市场提供理论依据。

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is hoping to study how the huge amount of imports affects the domestic and foreign futures prices. Design/Methodology/Approach - Based on VAR model to analyze and discuss the impact of import volume on futures trade. Findings - This paper finds that the Chinese soybean imports have little effect on the explanation of foreign futures prices, soybean imports have little effect on futures prices. Research Implications - In this paper, the research on the influence of soybean import volume on futures price is perfected, which provides theoretical basis for maximizing import welfare and improving domestic futures market.