1990년 이후 수출이 고용에 미치는 시변적 영향

Time-Varying Effects of Export on Employment Since 1990

Purpose This study uses the quarterly data of the Korean economy from 1990 to 2019 to identify the dynamic impacts of the expansions of export on employment. Design/Methodology/Approach The empirical analysis of this paper uses a methodology that applies the rolling regression model based on the dynamic OLS. The 40 quarters are composed of one sample, and then a total of 80 samples are formed by moving in 1 quarter afterward, starting from the first quarter of 1990. Findings It is found that export expansion since 1990 has little or even negative impact on employment, and the time-varying impacts are nor stable over time. In addition, the impact of export expansion on job creation is asymmetry. That is, the statistical significances are not observed in the samples where export expansion have positive impacts on employment, whereas the samples where negative impacts are generally statistically significant. In recent years, the impact of export by processing stage on employment is differently estimated Research Implications The empirical results suggest that the direct impact of export on employment in the Korean economy since the late 1990s is limited. In recent years, the impact of job creation have been observed in exports of consumer goods and capital goods compared to those of intermediate goods. This suggests that diversification of export products can be effective for job creation.