중국의 평균관세율 10%이하로 변화가 한국의 수출입에 상호 미친 영향에 관한 연구

An Empirical Study on the Mutual Influence between Import and Export Volume in Korea by China Tariff Changing under 10%

Purpose This study analyzes the mutual influence between the Korean import and export volume admist China’s imposition of tariff increases of about 10%. Design/Methodology/Approach This study tests the interrelationship between the Korean import and export volume from November 3, 1992 to March 31, 2019 using 318 monthly data observations. We employ variance decomposition based on the impulse response function as well as the VAR model to check how much proportion of variation in import volume is due to its own shock against export volume shock after unit root and cointegration tests are performed. Findings This research showed important results. First, there is a correlation between the export and import volume in Korea by changing under 10% China tariff change from + 0.870471 to + 0.987859. Second, Both import and export volume in Korea are not stationary at level variables. However, their first differences are relatively stationary than their levels. Third, import and export volume in Korea have a stable long-run relationship. Research Implications We find that there is a lagged impact between the export and import volume in Korea. The most important finding is that import volume Granger causes export volume in Korea. This means that previous import volume causes the amount of current export volume in Korea.