과수 폐업지원의 성과분석

Analysis on the Performance of the Subsidy for Closing Farms in Fruit Sector: Impact on productivity, scale, price and income by fruit

This study empirically analyzed the effect of the Farm-Closure Assistance(FCA) program on productivity, scale, price, and income of fruit farms for the purpose of objective evaluation of its policy performance.T o this end, panel data for the period of 2000-2018 is constructed for 8 items of fruit, and statistical significance of various proxy variables representing the FCA was tested using the random effect model. As results of the analysis, it is found that the FCA contributed to the improvement of the average productivity and scale of the target item, but the long-term effect on the market price or agricultural income of the item is evaluated to be negligible.I t is because the FCA maintains an institutional framework that induces short-term conversion of crops rather than exit of farming. Although there is an effect on short-term adjustment (reduction) of oversupplied items, it is difficult to expect long-term results such as restructuring, supply and demand stability, and competitiveness improvement.O n the other hand, the balloon effect, which is an indirect ripple effect due to the FCA, is statistically significant in terms of productivity and market price, but not so significant in terms of scale or income increase.