인구와 경제성장간 선형 및 비선형 관계에 관한 연구

An Empirical Analysis of the Linear and Non-linear Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of ASEAN and G7

Purpose - This research analyze linear and non-linear relationship between population and GDP Growth and analyze the effects of population growth and demographic changes on ASEAN’s economic growth and compare it with G7’s. Design/Methodology/Approach - This research used yearly data for the period from 1970 to 2018 of ASEAN’s Population, GDP Growth Rate and other variables. To identify the linear and non-linear relationship between population Growth and GDP Growth, Pooled OLS and Panel Model(Fixed Effect and Random Effect) were used. Findings - The results are as follows. First, ASEAN had a statistically significant positive correlation between population growth and economic growth. Second, ASEAN had a non-linear relationship between population growth and economic growth. But there was no non-linear relationship in G7. Lastly, it is estimated that ASEAN’s population growth has slowed down rapidly since 1950, resulting in population dividend effects was quite weak. Research Implications - This research differs from previous researches in that it analyze non-linear relationship between population growth and economic growth in ASEAN, and estimated the optimal population growth rate that maximizes economic growth. This research suggest that slowing population growth in ASEAN can undermine its attractiveness as a consumption market and production hub.