컨테이너 해운-조선산업 관계분석 연구

A Study on the Analysis of Inter-relation between Container Shipping and Shipbuilding Industry

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the shipping and the shipbuilding industry, which are respectively responsible for the demand and supply of ships, in order to forecast new shipbuilding orders. For this purpose, the primary focus of this study is to represent the relationship of the two industries in a diagram by utilizing the causal loop diagram (CLD) of System Dynamics. It also makes a prediction on the volume of new shipbuilding orders utilizing simulation and compares the results with forecasted results produced by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The construction of new containerships is determined by market factors and policy factors. Policy factors include competition between shipping companies, adoption of new technologies and a company’s financial capacity. Structural overcapacity leads to the reduction of new shipbuilding orders. Forecasting results of new shipbuilding orders based on System Dynamics and VECM shows that the quantity of order placement before the year 2025 is expected to decrease by 20~50% compared to the average of the latest 10 years. Since the ratio of new shipbuilding orders driven by market factors account for less than 50%, external environmental changes (oil prices, environmental regulations) are possible to drive up the demand for the construction of new vessels.